The Ten Humans Most Likely to Be President in February 2025 (Edition №1)
The first votes for President of the United States will take place 11 months from now, in Iowa, where Republican voters (but not Democratic voters) will let their voices be heard. Eleven months ago is a very short amount of time. Eleven months ago, Will Smith slapped Chris Rock at the Academy Awards. Does that feel like 11 months ago? Or does that feel like it just happened? That’s how quickly 11 months can go.
This is to say: The 2024 Presidential campaign, like it or not, is well underway. So one must start paying attention. Thus, we commence a new feature: Presidential Power Rankings. These will run monthly, starting today. A lot can happen in a month.
This is not a ranking of my favorite candidates, or the ones who have the most current momentum. It is simply a ranking of the 10 people most likely to be the President in February 2025 — after the next election.
Here’s the inaugural top 10. We’ll see you again on these in a month.
10. Ted Cruz. Good ole Ted. You know, it feels like Ted Cruz has been running for President forever, even if he has, in fact, only run once. Cruz’s theory of the case — the “real” conservative — made more sense in 2016 than it does now. Like with every other candidate in that race, Donald Trump made him and everybody else look like, as The Joker might put it, the schemers they really are. (They have done nothing but eat each other since then.) Cruz hasn’t made many nods toward running just yet, though it’s worth noting that he’s still, somehow, at 3 percent in the new Morning Consult poll.
We will be referring to this poll again in this top 10. We will not be referring to Ted Cruz, however.
9. Brian Kemp. As my New York magazine colleague Ed Kilgore has noted, you can make a good case for Kemp being the guy who has best figured out how to thread the needle that Nikki Haley, Tim Scott and even Mike Pence have been struggling with for the last few years. Align yourself with Trump and his voters and his supposed “values,”…