Ranking Your Best Picture Nominees by Likelihood They Will Win

It’s OK to care!

The Oscar nominations came out this morning. Oscar nominations are silly because all awards shows are silly, but of all the awards shows, the Oscars are unquestionably both the silliest and the most serious. The Academy Awards may fail at this goal constantly, but they do at least try to honor the objectively best movie of the year: You’re never going to see Transformers nominated for Best Picture, no matter how many people go to watch it. (I do not believe this to be the case for other awards shows.)

Plus, as the actual experience of going to the movies feels forever under attack — how many people in your life tell you, “Oh, jeez, I don’t remember the last time I want to the movies!” because in my life it is a lot — anything that honors this most truly global of art forms is fine in my book. People are going to be talking movies for a month or so? OK by me!

So, to kick off the fun, here’s a quick back-of-napkin ranking of the 10 films nominated for Best Picture, by their likelihood to actually win the award. This isn’t my personal ranking: I’ll put that at the end of the post. But this is a quick guess as to what will win. From least likely to most …

10. Women Talking. The biggest surprise nominee, Sarah Polley’s, well, talky drama…